Primary aluminum markets in China are set to continue to witness surplus supply in 2024, as the rate of production would outpace consumption, sources and analysts said.

消息人士和分析師預(yù)計(jì)：2024年中國(guó)原鋁繼續(xù)呈現(xiàn)供應(yīng)過剩的局面，因?yàn)樯a(chǎn)速度將超過消費(fèi)量。

However, output cuts in Yunnan, China's major aluminum hub, could emerge as a "wild card" in 2024, which could impact total aluminum supply in the case of worsening power shortages that would lead to more capacity curbs, according to industry experts.

然而，據(jù)行業(yè)專家稱，中國(guó)主要鋁中心云南的減產(chǎn)可能會(huì)在2024年成為“不確定因素”。這可能會(huì)影響鋁供應(yīng)總量，因?yàn)殡娏Χ倘奔觿。瑢?dǎo)致更多的產(chǎn)能限制。

Despite this situation, sources said they expect profit margins of Chinese smelters to remain healthy, as oversupply continues to weigh on domestic alumina prices while rising bauxite imports relieve raw material supply pressure in the domestic market.

盡管存在這種情況，但消息人士表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)冶煉廠的利潤(rùn)率將保持健康狀態(tài)。因供應(yīng)過剩繼續(xù)打壓國(guó)內(nèi)氧化鋁價(jià)格，而鋁土礦進(jìn)口增加緩解了國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的原材料供應(yīng)壓力。

The Platts China Domestic Alumina Daily assessment stood at Yuan 3,000/mt ($421/mt) ex-works Shanxi on Dec. 21, about 0.16% higher from the year-ago level. Platts is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

根據(jù)普氏能源資訊，12月21日，中國(guó)國(guó)產(chǎn)氧化鋁日估價(jià)為3,000元/噸（421美元/噸）山西出廠價(jià)，較去年同期上漲約0.16%。

There is limited new capacity set to come on stream in 2024, with established primary aluminum capacity already close to the national capacity ceiling of around 45 million mt/year, sources said.

消息人士稱，2024年投產(chǎn)的新產(chǎn)能有限，已建立的原鋁產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)接近全國(guó)約4,500萬噸/年的產(chǎn)能上限。

Most of the new projects were capacity transfers based on capacity replacement policies or those obtained quotas subjecting to certain special policies.

大多數(shù)新項(xiàng)目是基于產(chǎn)能置換政策的產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移，或者是受某些特殊政策約束的配額。

Russian aluminum is set to dominate China's import markets amid Russia's war with Ukraine, keeping Chinese imports at elevated levels, market sources said. Meanwhile, China's aluminum exports are expected to see a decline due to a slower recovery in overseas demand, they said.

市場(chǎng)消息人士稱，在俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中，俄羅斯鋁將主導(dǎo)中國(guó)的進(jìn)口市場(chǎng)，使中國(guó)的進(jìn)口保持在較高水平。與此同時(shí)，他們表示，由于海外需求復(fù)蘇放緩，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)鋁出口將出現(xiàn)下降。

來源：普氏能源資訊 電解鋁編譯、整理

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